JeffHaas
Friday, January 07, 2011, 02:43 AM
State of the Trade
by Jeffrey Haas
Numbers are meaningless within a vacuum. Trends cannot be understood through one factor alone. There are actually multiple factors that must be assessed before any determinations can be made. For instance, comics are said to be in a downward trend, resulting in sales figures, through November 2010, dropping almost five percent in comparison with this same point in time one year ago. This has led to the doomsayers proclaiming that the comic book apocalypse is imminent. But does the fear-mongering have merit? Afterall regular issue comics are only a segment of the overall market to which trade paperbacks/graphic novels are also a part, albeit in a more condensed, cost effective form. This being the case, it is as equally important to follow the trends of the TPB market to discern whether comic book sales are truly falling, or simply shifting laterally.
The relationship between single issue comics and TPBs is essential to examine for several reasons. Primarily, trade paperbacks were originally developed as an economic alternative to comic books. As comic book prices steadily increased, the trade has offered a way for fans to continue following their favorite storylines at a discounted rate. For instance, while buying all six issues of Atomic Robo (at cover price), would run you $21, you could buy their trade equivalent for $19. Not a huge difference, but when times are tough every bit helps. The buying of TPBs became such a popular trend that many people were claiming that it could result in the downfall of the single issue format. For comparison, the current talk surrounding digital comics feels similar to how people spoke about trades five to ten years ago. Their fears were not entirely without merit. In 2007, the top 100 trades witnessed a sales increase of 100% over the last five years, while single issue comics saw an increase of only 17% (Comichron). While this trend will be examined in more thorough detail later, it is important to stress that those people purchasing TPBs still constitute comic book buyers. The comic book publishers still profit, mightily, from the sale of TPBs, and their success still encourages the further publication of whatever character that company produces. They have a complimentary relationship to the single issues.
Another important factor regarding TPBs as a way to understand the comic book market, is that TPBs, currently, have wider visibility within the overall marketplace. TPBs can be purchased in numerous locations that regular issues cannot be found, and this is occurring with greater frequency. A consumer can purchase TPBs on online websites, like Amazon.com, from large chain book stores, like Barnes and Noble and Border's, on school campuses, especially ones teaching courses on modern literature, and they can also be found in libraries. More on libraries later. This greater visibility of TPBs, along with a possible increase in sales numbers, would be evidence of a shifting comic book market, while providing proof that the comic book industry may still be in relatively good health. These are just some of the reasons why one must examine the TPB market to fully discern the health of the comic book industry. With that being said, let us take a look at what the numbers say.
Unfortunately, the numbers are not entirely clear when analyzed over a long span of time. For instance, when the total dollar amount of sales for trades is compared to the total amount of dollar sales of single issue comics in late 2007 through 2008, there is an inverse relationship within the numbers. The trend appears to be that as the month to month dollar amount of regular issues goes down from one month to the next, the dollar amount of trades sold during that same time frame actually increases. To clarify let us take a look at the tail end of 2007. In Nov of 2007, the total number of Trades sold equaled a dollar amount of $5.99 million. Comics during that same month equaled a dollar value of $21.75 million. In December of 2007, sales of TPBs reached only $4.22 million, while comics had increased in sales to $22.61 million. For those math junkies out there this means that TPBs fell nearly 30%, while comics increased nearly 4%. From November 2007 to December 2008, this inverse relationship appears seven out of thirteen times. In other words there appears to be a slight relationship between the figures for single issues and TPBs. This could mean that what many people feared could be happening in the realm of comic book buying has occurred-that when comic buyers have more spending cash, they are buying single issue comics, which would cause TPBs sales to drop. Which would mean that when consumers feel they have less buying power, they are buying the trades and so single issue comic sales drop. Hence the inverse relationship.
However, when 2009 and 2010 sales figures are included this inverse relationship only appears six more times out of a possible 23 month period. Does this mean that at some point in 2009, the buying habits of consumers changed or does this mean that the previous, or any correlation, between the two figures are coincidental? I would hazard to wager that the inverse, or any, relationship between the two figures are merely coincidental. Any previous correlation within the figures are probably merely phantom relationships. This also means that those of us who feared that TPBs would cause the demise of the regular issue market have even less evidence for their argument because the data after January of 2009 indicates that as sales of the one goes up, so do sales of the other. This would probably not be the case if one or the other were drawing away readers.
So what can TPBs tell us about the comic book market? Since, as previously stated, TPBs are comics, regardless of format, they can help us understand a segment of the overall comic book market. So how is the TPB market faring? Again, there exists an inconsistency here. So far for the year 2010, TPBs have witnessed a fall of 3%. Not bad compared to single issues which fell 4.8% that same year. This is especially true when compared to 2009 when TPBs fell 15% which was almost double that of regular issue comics that fell roughly 8%. Regardless of the figures, however, I hesitate to say that the hemorrhaging of TPBs sales is coming to an end. What I found when examining the figures for the past several years, is that TPBs sales do not behave in any way similar to that of comics.
While single issue comics seem to be most affected, aside from the economic factors, by the particular storylines running along the big two at any given time. Storylines that are popular such as Blackest Night and Civil War seem to create waves that elevate the rest of the industry. In years where the major events have not garnered high levels of interest, the year for comics overall tend to dip drastically. For single issue comics (SICs), as the big two go, so does the industry. For TPBs, their sales are more dependent on events existing outside the direct medium. Research suggests that TPBs are mostly affected by other forms of media. For instance, why was 2008 such a good year for TPBs? Why did their sales increase 4% from the previous year while SICs decreased by 5%? The reason seems to be connected to the fact that news and hype surrounding the Watchmen movie began its drumbeat during that year causing sales of the Watchmen hardcover and softcover volumes to skyrocket. In August of 2008 alone, the Watchmen SC sold 43,000 copies at $19.99 a copy. This equates to $859, 570 or roughly one-fifth of the overall dollar sales for that TPBs in that month. In the same month Batman: The Killing Joke, the storyline that is credited as part of the inspiration behind the betrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight(released in 2008), witnessed sales of 6,200 and $17.99 apiece. In other words, the sales of August 2008 was virtually dominated by the popularity created in particular books through other media. The trend continued for much of the rest of 2008 and early 2009, where the Watchmen stayed either at the top or near the top of the charts every month. In November of 2008, the hardcover version of the Watchmen sold 8,100 copies at $39.99 a copy. That same month Heroes(based on the television program) sold 9, 200 copies at $29.99 a copy.
This would also explain why 2009 was such a harsh year for TPB sales, which had a drop of 15% from 2008's sales. This drop appears even worse when one realizes that the sales had remained over 2% from the previous year through April, due in no small part to the Watchmen that was still leading the charts. Without any comic based movie or television program creating excitement in the trade market, there seems little support for the TPB market. The story does not appear much different for 2010. When the Kick-Ass trade was popular(due to the movie) the sale of Trades appeared relatively healthy, although nowhere near that of 2008. What finally seemed to correct the TPBs market in 2010 was the combination of the Walking Dead and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World. Now, you may recall that Trades for 2010 were down 3% from the previous year, but up until May of that year, sales had been down 15%. This is when Ex Machina was leading the charge. Once Scott Pilgrim began to gain attention due to its movie, and The Walking Dead television series proved a hit, the TPBs reflected this activity in its overall sales. With the help of the Walking Dead series, sales of TPBs in October had reached $7.11 million or more than one-third of what SICs sold that same month- a rare feat. For this reason, TPB sales prove very difficult to project. The more comic book related movies and television shows are produced, especially about lesser known titles, the better this market will perform.
It is important to keep in mind, however, the fact that these sales figures are based on Diamond's sales to mostly comic book stores. Another chart is even more interesting, although incomplete, and this is the Nielsen Bookscan figures. "Nielsen BookScan is a data provider for the book publishing industry, owned by the Nielsen Company. BookScan compiles point of sale data for book sales," (Wikipedia). What this means is that Bookscan compiles the actual number of sales, from bookstores, to the consumer. Unlike Diamond which only provides the data of what the comic store owner is purchasing, Bookscan tells us what the customers are actually purchasing. There is a caveat though, according to Nielson's Bookscan Sales Coordinator, Brianna Buckley, "Nielsen BookScan's US Consumer Market Panel currently covers approximately 75% of retail sales and continues to grow. BookScan does not track sales from Wal-Mart/Sam's Club." So these sale figures only show a segment of the overall picture, but a very substantial one. Here are some of the highlights: The Watchmen Hardcover, since its release in 2008 has sold 65,000 copies. Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World Vol. 1 has sold 102,00 copies since 2005 and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World vol. 2 has sold 81,000 copies. Kickass Hardcover has reached 38,000 copies and The Walking Dead volume 1(2006) has reached 60,000 copies. This is a lot of buying, especially considering the costs of these books can reach $20 and up.
These sale figures can also help gain a general idea of the monthly sales of Trades through Bookscan as well. In October of 2010 Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World occupied six of the top ten spots on the charts, with Naruto Vol. 49, landing the top spot. November showed similar trends with Scott Pilgrim placing in six of the top twelve slots. The Superman: Earth One hardcover was placed first, with The Walking Dead occupying three of the top ten slots and Serenity: The Shepherd's Tale debuting in sixth place. This all means that consumers are hearing reports of upcoming comic-related projects and are heading to their local bookstore to catch-up on the storyline. This being the case, it is also probably fair to assume that at least a substantial fraction of these purchasers are regular comic book buyers; and certainly not SIC collectors. TPBs can act as a gateway to bring people to comic books, which increases their acceptability, further improves the health of comic book publishers (especially smaller ones), and increases the visibility of the characters that exist within. And, the best weapon for the health of the TPB, and subsequently the SIC market is the television and movie industry. One last interesting note on TPB sales and it is that, "Manga dominates the graphic novel bestseller lists on Amazon and Barnes & Noble," (Grabois). Seemingly, the Naruto series of trades is by far the most dominant in that category.
Another interesting point about the TPB market, has to do with their recent appearance within public libraries. In 2010, during the ALA Annual conference, which stands for American Library Association, "Christian Zabriskie of Queens Public Library discussed 'where graphic novels and circulation mesh,'" (Goldstein). In this program Zabriskie used a "cost/circ ratio" to determine the value of libraries investing in graphic novels for circulation. Zabriskie, utilizing some fancy number crunching, determined that, "graphic novels in his library’s young adult collection at the Central Library in Jamaica, Queens cost about thirty-eight cents per circulation," (Goldstein). This means that graphic novels, on average, are better investments for libraries than," high-interest titles such as the Twilight and Harry Potter series," (Goldstein). The importance of this data is that 1) graphic novels, due to their investment value, will be increasingly sought by libraries in the near future, and 2)there is an even larger number of people enjoying comics than have been previously thought. In both cases this is a plus for the TPB market and also SICs. For one, those who like to borrow graphic novels from the library may eventually become buyers of them. Also it is possible that some people may be using libraries as a way to experiment with the medium of comics books before investing real money to jump fully into it. Also, again, the more libraries that carry TPBs, the more potential exposure they will have with people who have not previously considered this medium before. It may also be of most benefit in building the younger audience, who cannot yet afford to be buyers. Either way, TPBs are proving that comic books are still relatively healthy, although, in different forms then we are used to.
I think it can be confidently said that comic books, especially TPBs, will still possess a long shelf life. While TPBs may be most under threat by digital comics, because they share a similar audience, which is non-investors (presumably on a budget), it is still too early to tell to what extent this may occur. Either way, TPBs are currently showing that the comic book market place is safe. TPBs are also not hurting the SIC market. It seems that there is less lateral movement from SICs to TPBs and instead TPBs are acting as ambassadors to new potential readers who exist outside the current comic book marketplace.
Next article: Almost six months since the purchase of Marvel by Disney, we take a look at its impact, and its future repercussions.
Works Cited
***All monthly and yearly sales figures for Diamond Distributed comics is provided by Comichron.
***All Bookscan sale chart data, unless otherwise stated is provided by ICv2
Goldstein, Lisa. "Graphic Novels: More Bang For Your Book". The PLA Blog. Chicago. The American Library Association. 2011. http://plablog.org/2010/06/graphic-novels-more- bang-for-your-book.html.
Grabois, Andrew. "Graphic Novels". Beneath the Cover. 8-20-2007. Beneath the Cover. 2011.
Wikipedia. " Nielsen Bookscan." Wikimedia Foundation, INC. 2011
by Jeffrey Haas
Numbers are meaningless within a vacuum. Trends cannot be understood through one factor alone. There are actually multiple factors that must be assessed before any determinations can be made. For instance, comics are said to be in a downward trend, resulting in sales figures, through November 2010, dropping almost five percent in comparison with this same point in time one year ago. This has led to the doomsayers proclaiming that the comic book apocalypse is imminent. But does the fear-mongering have merit? Afterall regular issue comics are only a segment of the overall market to which trade paperbacks/graphic novels are also a part, albeit in a more condensed, cost effective form. This being the case, it is as equally important to follow the trends of the TPB market to discern whether comic book sales are truly falling, or simply shifting laterally.
The relationship between single issue comics and TPBs is essential to examine for several reasons. Primarily, trade paperbacks were originally developed as an economic alternative to comic books. As comic book prices steadily increased, the trade has offered a way for fans to continue following their favorite storylines at a discounted rate. For instance, while buying all six issues of Atomic Robo (at cover price), would run you $21, you could buy their trade equivalent for $19. Not a huge difference, but when times are tough every bit helps. The buying of TPBs became such a popular trend that many people were claiming that it could result in the downfall of the single issue format. For comparison, the current talk surrounding digital comics feels similar to how people spoke about trades five to ten years ago. Their fears were not entirely without merit. In 2007, the top 100 trades witnessed a sales increase of 100% over the last five years, while single issue comics saw an increase of only 17% (Comichron). While this trend will be examined in more thorough detail later, it is important to stress that those people purchasing TPBs still constitute comic book buyers. The comic book publishers still profit, mightily, from the sale of TPBs, and their success still encourages the further publication of whatever character that company produces. They have a complimentary relationship to the single issues.
Another important factor regarding TPBs as a way to understand the comic book market, is that TPBs, currently, have wider visibility within the overall marketplace. TPBs can be purchased in numerous locations that regular issues cannot be found, and this is occurring with greater frequency. A consumer can purchase TPBs on online websites, like Amazon.com, from large chain book stores, like Barnes and Noble and Border's, on school campuses, especially ones teaching courses on modern literature, and they can also be found in libraries. More on libraries later. This greater visibility of TPBs, along with a possible increase in sales numbers, would be evidence of a shifting comic book market, while providing proof that the comic book industry may still be in relatively good health. These are just some of the reasons why one must examine the TPB market to fully discern the health of the comic book industry. With that being said, let us take a look at what the numbers say.
Unfortunately, the numbers are not entirely clear when analyzed over a long span of time. For instance, when the total dollar amount of sales for trades is compared to the total amount of dollar sales of single issue comics in late 2007 through 2008, there is an inverse relationship within the numbers. The trend appears to be that as the month to month dollar amount of regular issues goes down from one month to the next, the dollar amount of trades sold during that same time frame actually increases. To clarify let us take a look at the tail end of 2007. In Nov of 2007, the total number of Trades sold equaled a dollar amount of $5.99 million. Comics during that same month equaled a dollar value of $21.75 million. In December of 2007, sales of TPBs reached only $4.22 million, while comics had increased in sales to $22.61 million. For those math junkies out there this means that TPBs fell nearly 30%, while comics increased nearly 4%. From November 2007 to December 2008, this inverse relationship appears seven out of thirteen times. In other words there appears to be a slight relationship between the figures for single issues and TPBs. This could mean that what many people feared could be happening in the realm of comic book buying has occurred-that when comic buyers have more spending cash, they are buying single issue comics, which would cause TPBs sales to drop. Which would mean that when consumers feel they have less buying power, they are buying the trades and so single issue comic sales drop. Hence the inverse relationship.
However, when 2009 and 2010 sales figures are included this inverse relationship only appears six more times out of a possible 23 month period. Does this mean that at some point in 2009, the buying habits of consumers changed or does this mean that the previous, or any correlation, between the two figures are coincidental? I would hazard to wager that the inverse, or any, relationship between the two figures are merely coincidental. Any previous correlation within the figures are probably merely phantom relationships. This also means that those of us who feared that TPBs would cause the demise of the regular issue market have even less evidence for their argument because the data after January of 2009 indicates that as sales of the one goes up, so do sales of the other. This would probably not be the case if one or the other were drawing away readers.
So what can TPBs tell us about the comic book market? Since, as previously stated, TPBs are comics, regardless of format, they can help us understand a segment of the overall comic book market. So how is the TPB market faring? Again, there exists an inconsistency here. So far for the year 2010, TPBs have witnessed a fall of 3%. Not bad compared to single issues which fell 4.8% that same year. This is especially true when compared to 2009 when TPBs fell 15% which was almost double that of regular issue comics that fell roughly 8%. Regardless of the figures, however, I hesitate to say that the hemorrhaging of TPBs sales is coming to an end. What I found when examining the figures for the past several years, is that TPBs sales do not behave in any way similar to that of comics.
While single issue comics seem to be most affected, aside from the economic factors, by the particular storylines running along the big two at any given time. Storylines that are popular such as Blackest Night and Civil War seem to create waves that elevate the rest of the industry. In years where the major events have not garnered high levels of interest, the year for comics overall tend to dip drastically. For single issue comics (SICs), as the big two go, so does the industry. For TPBs, their sales are more dependent on events existing outside the direct medium. Research suggests that TPBs are mostly affected by other forms of media. For instance, why was 2008 such a good year for TPBs? Why did their sales increase 4% from the previous year while SICs decreased by 5%? The reason seems to be connected to the fact that news and hype surrounding the Watchmen movie began its drumbeat during that year causing sales of the Watchmen hardcover and softcover volumes to skyrocket. In August of 2008 alone, the Watchmen SC sold 43,000 copies at $19.99 a copy. This equates to $859, 570 or roughly one-fifth of the overall dollar sales for that TPBs in that month. In the same month Batman: The Killing Joke, the storyline that is credited as part of the inspiration behind the betrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight(released in 2008), witnessed sales of 6,200 and $17.99 apiece. In other words, the sales of August 2008 was virtually dominated by the popularity created in particular books through other media. The trend continued for much of the rest of 2008 and early 2009, where the Watchmen stayed either at the top or near the top of the charts every month. In November of 2008, the hardcover version of the Watchmen sold 8,100 copies at $39.99 a copy. That same month Heroes(based on the television program) sold 9, 200 copies at $29.99 a copy.
This would also explain why 2009 was such a harsh year for TPB sales, which had a drop of 15% from 2008's sales. This drop appears even worse when one realizes that the sales had remained over 2% from the previous year through April, due in no small part to the Watchmen that was still leading the charts. Without any comic based movie or television program creating excitement in the trade market, there seems little support for the TPB market. The story does not appear much different for 2010. When the Kick-Ass trade was popular(due to the movie) the sale of Trades appeared relatively healthy, although nowhere near that of 2008. What finally seemed to correct the TPBs market in 2010 was the combination of the Walking Dead and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World. Now, you may recall that Trades for 2010 were down 3% from the previous year, but up until May of that year, sales had been down 15%. This is when Ex Machina was leading the charge. Once Scott Pilgrim began to gain attention due to its movie, and The Walking Dead television series proved a hit, the TPBs reflected this activity in its overall sales. With the help of the Walking Dead series, sales of TPBs in October had reached $7.11 million or more than one-third of what SICs sold that same month- a rare feat. For this reason, TPB sales prove very difficult to project. The more comic book related movies and television shows are produced, especially about lesser known titles, the better this market will perform.
It is important to keep in mind, however, the fact that these sales figures are based on Diamond's sales to mostly comic book stores. Another chart is even more interesting, although incomplete, and this is the Nielsen Bookscan figures. "Nielsen BookScan is a data provider for the book publishing industry, owned by the Nielsen Company. BookScan compiles point of sale data for book sales," (Wikipedia). What this means is that Bookscan compiles the actual number of sales, from bookstores, to the consumer. Unlike Diamond which only provides the data of what the comic store owner is purchasing, Bookscan tells us what the customers are actually purchasing. There is a caveat though, according to Nielson's Bookscan Sales Coordinator, Brianna Buckley, "Nielsen BookScan's US Consumer Market Panel currently covers approximately 75% of retail sales and continues to grow. BookScan does not track sales from Wal-Mart/Sam's Club." So these sale figures only show a segment of the overall picture, but a very substantial one. Here are some of the highlights: The Watchmen Hardcover, since its release in 2008 has sold 65,000 copies. Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World Vol. 1 has sold 102,00 copies since 2005 and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World vol. 2 has sold 81,000 copies. Kickass Hardcover has reached 38,000 copies and The Walking Dead volume 1(2006) has reached 60,000 copies. This is a lot of buying, especially considering the costs of these books can reach $20 and up.
These sale figures can also help gain a general idea of the monthly sales of Trades through Bookscan as well. In October of 2010 Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World occupied six of the top ten spots on the charts, with Naruto Vol. 49, landing the top spot. November showed similar trends with Scott Pilgrim placing in six of the top twelve slots. The Superman: Earth One hardcover was placed first, with The Walking Dead occupying three of the top ten slots and Serenity: The Shepherd's Tale debuting in sixth place. This all means that consumers are hearing reports of upcoming comic-related projects and are heading to their local bookstore to catch-up on the storyline. This being the case, it is also probably fair to assume that at least a substantial fraction of these purchasers are regular comic book buyers; and certainly not SIC collectors. TPBs can act as a gateway to bring people to comic books, which increases their acceptability, further improves the health of comic book publishers (especially smaller ones), and increases the visibility of the characters that exist within. And, the best weapon for the health of the TPB, and subsequently the SIC market is the television and movie industry. One last interesting note on TPB sales and it is that, "Manga dominates the graphic novel bestseller lists on Amazon and Barnes & Noble," (Grabois). Seemingly, the Naruto series of trades is by far the most dominant in that category.
Another interesting point about the TPB market, has to do with their recent appearance within public libraries. In 2010, during the ALA Annual conference, which stands for American Library Association, "Christian Zabriskie of Queens Public Library discussed 'where graphic novels and circulation mesh,'" (Goldstein). In this program Zabriskie used a "cost/circ ratio" to determine the value of libraries investing in graphic novels for circulation. Zabriskie, utilizing some fancy number crunching, determined that, "graphic novels in his library’s young adult collection at the Central Library in Jamaica, Queens cost about thirty-eight cents per circulation," (Goldstein). This means that graphic novels, on average, are better investments for libraries than," high-interest titles such as the Twilight and Harry Potter series," (Goldstein). The importance of this data is that 1) graphic novels, due to their investment value, will be increasingly sought by libraries in the near future, and 2)there is an even larger number of people enjoying comics than have been previously thought. In both cases this is a plus for the TPB market and also SICs. For one, those who like to borrow graphic novels from the library may eventually become buyers of them. Also it is possible that some people may be using libraries as a way to experiment with the medium of comics books before investing real money to jump fully into it. Also, again, the more libraries that carry TPBs, the more potential exposure they will have with people who have not previously considered this medium before. It may also be of most benefit in building the younger audience, who cannot yet afford to be buyers. Either way, TPBs are proving that comic books are still relatively healthy, although, in different forms then we are used to.
I think it can be confidently said that comic books, especially TPBs, will still possess a long shelf life. While TPBs may be most under threat by digital comics, because they share a similar audience, which is non-investors (presumably on a budget), it is still too early to tell to what extent this may occur. Either way, TPBs are currently showing that the comic book market place is safe. TPBs are also not hurting the SIC market. It seems that there is less lateral movement from SICs to TPBs and instead TPBs are acting as ambassadors to new potential readers who exist outside the current comic book marketplace.
Next article: Almost six months since the purchase of Marvel by Disney, we take a look at its impact, and its future repercussions.
Works Cited
***All monthly and yearly sales figures for Diamond Distributed comics is provided by Comichron.
***All Bookscan sale chart data, unless otherwise stated is provided by ICv2
Goldstein, Lisa. "Graphic Novels: More Bang For Your Book". The PLA Blog. Chicago. The American Library Association. 2011. http://plablog.org/2010/06/graphic-novels-more- bang-for-your-book.html.
Grabois, Andrew. "Graphic Novels". Beneath the Cover. 8-20-2007. Beneath the Cover. 2011.
Wikipedia. " Nielsen Bookscan." Wikimedia Foundation, INC. 2011